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SuperDave17

Managing the Cap - 2018/2019 edition

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There's some debate about how to manage the cap heading into next seasons. Two things:

1) There's some debate about how much cap space we're going to have (or not have) to play with this upcoming season. Posts along these lines are good.

2) Suggesting moves that you perceive as both improving the team and helping the cap situation are welcome as well. 

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$62,396,167 ( PROJECTED CAP HIT) - based on 15 of 23 roster contracts, and one buyout

$67,583,333 (ESTIMATED SALARY EXPENDITURE) - add 8 salaries at league minimum, to make roster of 23.

(with 2.5 in potential bonuses) - most likely not to be claimed.

Cap projection currently is around 78.  May be as low as 75 or as high as 80.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers

Strome and Nurse to be resigned .... Strome at minimum 10% raise from 2.5 million (So actual Estimated Salary Expenditure should be closer to 69,000,000 - Nurse will likely put it between 71 and 72 million.

6 other free agents (RFA and UFA) - Camalleri, Slepyshev, Caggiula, Pakarinen, Benning, Auvitu  ... with 4 to 9 million to spend on them or their replacements.

Edited by DeutchOil

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The Oilers are not required to offer Strome a raise as he makes over $1M.

That said, he is eligible for salary arbitration, so you would think they'd give him some kind of increase.

 

What I really wonder about is how much to pay Nurse and for how long a term.

One more season and he becomes eligible for salary arbitration, 4 more seasons brings him to UFA status.

I'm not sure if Edmonton could/should give him a long term contract, but if they do bridge him, how much can they afford and for how long?

As the above post states, there could be as little as $4M to sign 6 free agents,IF Nurse is signed for $3M.

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27 minutes ago, SuperDave17 said:

Any thoughts on Sekera's or Lucic's willingness to waive?

I don't think either of them will be asked. If we get to the deadline and we're out, it'll be a different story.

I don't think it will come to that. I think one of our higher dollar guys will get dealt.

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It's going to be tough to bring in anyone via ufa or trade without moving 1 of our big dollar players! After seing what RNH can do with Mcdavid and Rattie playing great as well on that line I think it's safe to say we have our top line locked up it's just a matter of finding a player for Draisaitl to play with! Nurse Strome and Caggulia I see coming back next year with Nurse's contract being the most tricky to handle! Do we offer a bridge deal for a couple yrs to get a better idea of what we have and hope the cap keeps rising so we can afford a more suitable contract for him? Strome has finally found a place on the 3rd line C and shows promise and I think a 3yr 3million contract for him could work wich leaves a slight raise for Caggulia since he's a gritty player with upside. I think trying to move Sekera is our best bet at this time and try and get a solid top 4 Defenseman in return even if we need to overpay with a draft pick to entice the trade and Sekera willing to lift his NTC! Be interesting to see what happens this off season! Do we make a pitch for Kovalchuck if everything falls into place and we can afford him or do we try a deal with Kreider since NYR are trying to reload there cupboards? Hope something good comes of this all!

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17 hours ago, SuperDave17 said:

Any thoughts on Sekera's or Lucic's willingness to waive?

At this point, if either one waives, the 10 teams selected have ALL the power.  No trade will be made without a very low return, with maximum salary retention.  Both have lengthy term left .... on high dollar values.

Sekera coming off a substandard return from injury, at an age (31) that he may never recover.

Lucic coming off a substandard season, when age (29) has already been noticed to be regressing his career.

10 teams selected will likely be playoff contenders who will not be desperate to add risks or lofty contracts.

End result would be a minimum salary dump, while lowering total Cap, with little to no return in assets.

Edited by DeutchOil

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For Me, the two biggest problems facing the Oilers and the Cap:

NOT McDavid and Draisaitl's contracts.  BUT

1. No Movement Clauses on 16 million in salary to Russel, Sekera, and Lucic ... making all 3 virtually impossible to move to gain cap space, with very questionable/iffy return on all three.  No evidence any of them will be better than they were this year.  Only hope.

2. Cam Talbot.  After how horrible he was this year (16 first shot goals against) Gotta get a backup that could become a starter if Cam sucks again .... but can't afford to with the other noted holes.  Fingers Crossed time that someone can return to even average form.

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On 4/19/2018 at 3:37 PM, DeutchOil said:

For Me, the two biggest problems facing the Oilers and the Cap:

NOT McDavid and Draisaitl's contracts.  BUT

1. No Movement Clauses on 16 million in salary to Russel, Sekera, and Lucic ... making all 3 virtually impossible to move to gain cap space, with very questionable/iffy return on all three.  No evidence any of them will be better than they were this year.  Only hope.

2. Cam Talbot.  After how horrible he was this year (16 first shot goals against) Gotta get a backup that could become a starter if Cam sucks again .... but can't afford to with the other noted holes.  Fingers Crossed time that someone can return to even average form.

Yeah I think it's on all the players. Not sure what they did last off season but other than McDavid I think they all failed in one way or another. With all the contracts you mentioed, and the RFA's that need to be signed, if those guys don't turn it around it's another long year that will be over like this past season, by Halloween. I'm really hoping we see a nice story in November on Talbot on how he changed his training in the off season. Connor Hellebuyck was terrible last season and he became a Vezina finalist not because the Jets signed Steve Mason, but because he worked his butt off in the off season to strengthen his weaknesses. So I disagree on getting a 'goalie' to 'push' Talbot. If he (Talbot) doesn't do the work - it won't matter, and he won't be an Oiler after next season. 

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19 minutes ago, OilyJetFan said:

Yeah I think it's on all the players. Not sure what they did last off season but other than McDavid I think they all failed in one way or another. With all the contracts you mentioed, and the RFA's that need to be signed, if those guys don't turn it around it's another long year that will be over like this past season, by Halloween. I'm really hoping we see a nice story in November on Talbot on how he changed his training in the off season. Connor Hellebuyck was terrible last season and he became a Vezina finalist not because the Jets signed Steve Mason, but because he worked his butt off in the off season to strengthen his weaknesses. So I disagree on getting a 'goalie' to 'push' Talbot. If he (Talbot) doesn't do the work - it won't matter, and he won't be an Oiler after next season. 

Getting Mason would have been one helluva motivation, don't you think?  Much more than 'goodness-of-his-own-heart'.  It's like buying insurance.  In a perfect World, you won't ever use it.  Without it, you are hooped.

I'm just tired of the Oilers "believing" their players just have to improve.  And then doing nothing to help make that happen.  Fans having "faith" is a far different thing than management demanding it.

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3 hours ago, DeutchOil said:

Getting Mason would have been one helluva motivation, don't you think?  Much more than 'goodness-of-his-own-heart'.  It's like buying insurance.  In a perfect World, you won't ever use it.  Without it, you are hooped.

I'm just tired of the Oilers "believing" their players just have to improve.  And then doing nothing to help make that happen.  Fans having "faith" is a far different thing than management demanding it.

Nope - Helle was already training when Mason was signed. I don't think it's motivation at all. If you can't motivate yourself, bringing in someone else won't. And like it or not, as you mentioned, there's a whole pile of NTC in contracts on this team. So there isn't much that can be done. Most PC will be able to do is bring in two players based on salary, and if 'our' guys don't improve drastically, it won't matter their names or positions, we aren't going anywhere. All these players have to have big rebound seasons for us to have a chance:

Talbot

Lucic

Kelfbom

Larsson

Sekera

Draisaitl

A few players must take the next step (and in the case of the first one - a BIG step)

Jesse Puljuarvi

Drake Caggiula

Ryan Strome

Matt Benning

And Darnell Nurse, once he gets his big raise,has to keep improving as well as I'm sure he's getting around 5 million a year so we're going to need him to take that next step.

The only reason why this team got 78 points was because of Connor McDavid. Period. If McDavid wasn't on this roster, we'd have been the worst team in the NHL - and I don't think it would have been that close either (probably by 10 points or more).

That's what I see

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On 4/21/2018 at 4:13 PM, OilyJetFan said:

Yeah I think it's on all the players. Not sure what they did last off season but other than McDavid I think they all failed in one way or another. With all the contracts you mentioed, and the RFA's that need to be signed, if those guys don't turn it around it's another long year that will be over like this past season, by Halloween. I'm really hoping we see a nice story in November on Talbot on how he changed his training in the off season. Connor Hellebuyck was terrible last season and he became a Vezina finalist not because the Jets signed Steve Mason, but because he worked his butt off in the off season to strengthen his weaknesses. So I disagree on getting a 'goalie' to 'push' Talbot. If he (Talbot) doesn't do the work - it won't matter, and he won't be an Oiler after next season. 

It's ok to hold people responsible for their jobs. Not everything is the boss' fault for not making it summer camp all the time. 

Do your flippin job. If you had a crap year it's on you to do the work, show up ready to go, and play like you're a millionaire that gets to play hockey for a living.

Edited by Fogolin2

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As frustrating as things have been this season with the Oilers, I remind myself that the team is not in a do-or-die situation by any means.  Sure the playoff run last year has exacerbated my patience but the reality is we are really in a transition - and like it or not, the cap system does not speed things up. 

Our core players - McD, LD, and Nurse (RNH?) - are in their early 20s and still in a learning curve (some more than others) and have at least 10/12 more years of high performance hockey to play (witness the Pens).   Some prospects may pan out while others may fade away along the way, but we need to keep the cupboards as well stocked as the roster.  If we get a promising Dman in the draft - then realize that's a 3-year project and build accordingly.

My point is that we won't make a big jump in one season - so let's focus on continued building next season; adjusting to new systems and personnel (coaching changes especially); and, making smart player changes.  We can do a lot of "fixing" for this team by changing the culture, accountability, and professionalism  of this team. 

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Been wondering where brass stands with Kassian. I figured he'd be a victim of the cap and ol Pete would trade/package him this summer now that we have Aberg for the season at nearly a third of the cost. With Pacman jumping ship to the KHL does that make Kassian safe? It's not like we have a ton of options on the right side. I like Kassian as much as the next fan but if we can shed 2 mil from the payroll it's something to consider..

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2 hours ago, Fogolin2 said:

What is JVR going to cost? He could be a scoring option on the wing

6 - 7 year contract

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On 4/23/2018 at 6:18 PM, HappyHappy said:

Been wondering where brass stands with Kassian. I figured he'd be a victim of the cap and ol Pete would trade/package him this summer now that we have Aberg for the season at nearly a third of the cost. With Pacman jumping ship to the KHL does that make Kassian safe? It's not like we have a ton of options on the right side. I like Kassian as much as the next fan but if we can shed 2 mil from the payroll it's something to consider..

I like Kassian - he definitely struggled at times last year but he's physical and fast. Aberg IMO is an enigma. I count on him for nothing. By that I mean if he plays well he'll be a great bonus but no way no how does he (IMO) become a difference maker on this team. He's a 13th forward, that's it. 

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21 hours ago, OilyJetFan said:

I like Kassian - he definitely struggled at times last year but he's physical and fast. Aberg IMO is an enigma. I count on him for nothing. By that I mean if he plays well he'll be a great bonus but no way no how does he (IMO) become a difference maker on this team. He's a 13th forward, that's it. 

Oh I like Kass too, but really we "should" have enough physicality in the lineup with Lars, Nurse, Khaira, Lucic... If they use it? I'll guess Kass n Aberg are pretty close in speed, Aberg may even be faster? Both need to use their speed more. I haven't seen Aberg play a lot other then the small sample size with the Oil at end of season and I missed a few games but I did notice he can disappear at times. Gotta Bring It Every Night and I'm not certain he's got that in him. Not sure either are huge difference makers, better then 13th forward though, no? You may be right.

The #s:

Kassian (1.95mil UFA 2020/21) 2017/18:  74gp, 7g 12a 19pts -8

Aberg (.65mil RFA 2019/20) 2017/18: 16gp, 2g 6a 8pts +1

Again small sample size on Aberg but at a third of the cost he looks like he could double Kassian's offensive production in equal games played (going off last yrs #s). Be a bit of a gamble as Aberg is still kinda unknown (to me anyway). If we can fill our needs without moving Kassian then even better, I'd love to keep him too and it'd kinda suck to see the veteran go. Just pointing out an option to free up some cash, dunno if it's the right move though.

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52 minutes ago, HappyHappy said:

Oh I like Kass too, but really we "should" have enough physicality in the lineup with Lars, Nurse, Khaira, Lucic... If they use it? I'll guess Kass n Aberg are pretty close in speed, Aberg may even be faster? Both need to use their speed more. I haven't seen Aberg play a lot other then the small sample size with the Oil at end of season and I missed a few games but I did notice he can disappear at times. Gotta Bring It Every Night and I'm not certain he's got that in him. Not sure either are huge difference makers, better then 13th forward though, no? You may be right.

The #s:

Kassian (1.95mil UFA 2020/21) 2017/18:  74gp, 7g 12a 19pts -8

Aberg (.65mil RFA 2019/20) 2017/18: 16gp, 2g 6a 8pts +1

Again small sample size on Aberg but at a third of the cost he looks like he could double Kassian's offensive production in equal games played (going off last yrs #s). Be a bit of a gamble as Aberg is still kinda unknown (to me anyway). If we can fill our needs without moving Kassian then even better, I'd love to keep him too and it'd kinda suck to see the veteran go. Just pointing out an option to free up some cash, dunno if it's the right move though.

Well you do bring up a good point as we do need to free up cash for sure. I just thing Aberg and his antics are not a good thing. Kassian is another one who struggled again this year. If Kass is ever going to move to the next level, then next year and/or the year after is it. His contract will be up and he'll be a UFA. A 'vet' making 2M (AAV 1.95) / year who can kill penalities and play 3rd line minutes is still a pretty good bargain. I don't see Aberg as an everyday NHL player yet. I do know this team is a mess right now and PC really has his work cut out for him. 

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What concerns me about Aberg is, that in just over 20 games after the deadline trade, he managed to get into his head coach's dog house for multiple games ..... TWICE.  Once, four games after he arrived for skipping practice for no legitimate reason, and the second time, to sit in the press box healthy for the last 9 or so games of the season while the Oilers were "looking to see what they had" ... for no disclosed reason (but it must have been something huge to be benched when Management was looking closest, and strongly desiring to see the talent they had for next year).

This was his reputation in Nashville too.  They soured on him big time.  Now, it looks like he has peed in the Oilers' Cheerios too, before he even got started ......

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15 hours ago, DeutchOil said:

What concerns me about Aberg is, that in just over 20 games after the deadline trade, he managed to get into his head coach's dog house for multiple games ..... TWICE.  Once, four games after he arrived for skipping practice for no legitimate reason, and the second time, to sit in the press box healthy for the last 9 or so games of the season while the Oilers were "looking to see what they had" ... for no disclosed reason (but it must have been something huge to be benched when Management was looking closest, and strongly desiring to see the talent they had for next year).

This was his reputation in Nashville too.  They soured on him big time.  Now, it looks like he has peed in the Oilers' Cheerios too, before he even got started ......

Yep exactly which was my point when I said "Aberg and his 'antics'" Scares me and as mentioned I'm counting on him for absolutely nothing. My bet is we farm him and someone claims him on waivers (or not). He may be cheap, but cheap only counts if you're in the lineup and contributing in a good way. 

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34 minutes ago, OilyJetFan said:

Yep exactly which was my point when I said "Aberg and his 'antics'" Scares me and as mentioned I'm counting on him for absolutely nothing. My bet is we farm him and someone claims him on waivers (or not). He may be cheap, but cheap only counts if you're in the lineup and contributing in a good way. 

Coming off a year where both the club and many of the fans have chosen to blame the players and their lack of effort and coachability (i.e. character) for their final place in the standings, a guy like Aberg, who manages to get himself "healthy scratched" while contributing points on the second line for ALL of the last 9 or so games while the roster is being evaluated, doesn't really contribute to changing the "character" of the team in a positive way for next season.

I still don't understand the argument logic line.  1. Lack of Team Character = 2017/18 lack of team success.  2.  Change as little as possible in roster.  3.  Team will be successful in 2018/19.

I understand why the roster might not change .... "lack of options" I think you called it .... but not how that equates to a better team for next year.

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2 minutes ago, DeutchOil said:

Coming off a year where both the club and many of the fans have chosen to blame the players and their lack of effort and coachability (i.e. character) for their final place in the standings, a guy like Aberg, who manages to get himself "healthy scratched" while contributing points on the second line for ALL of the last 9 or so games while the roster is being evaluated, doesn't really contribute to changing the "character" of the team in a positive way for next season.

I still don't understand the argument logic line.  1. Lack of Team Character = 2017/18 lack of team success.  2.  Change as little as possible in roster.  3.  Team will be successful in 2018/19.

I understand why the roster might not change .... "lack of options" I think you called it .... but not how that equates to a better team for next year.

McDavid going to another level - that's it. Without him, we're the worst team in the league, and its' not close. Don't really care for our roster at all right now but if we are to get better it's gotta come from within. l don't like chances :( 

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6 minutes ago, OilyJetFan said:

McDavid going to another level - that's it. Without him, we're the worst team in the league, and its' not close. Don't really care for our roster at all right now but if we are to get better it's gotta come from within. l don't like chances :( 

McDavid is something else ... true.

But no one can win alone. 

I don't like our chances either ..... PC has to be a miracle worker this Summer, but I get the feeling, cosmetic changes will be the order of the day .... again (get ready for more Nikitins, Faynes, Klinkhammers, and such).

Nice win by Winni though .... GO JETS!!!!!!

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3 hours ago, DeutchOil said:

McDavid is something else ... true.

But no one can win alone. 

I don't like our chances either ..... PC has to be a miracle worker this Summer, but I get the feeling, cosmetic changes will be the order of the day .... again (get ready for more Nikitins, Faynes, Klinkhammers, and such).

Nice win by Winni though .... GO JETS!!!!!!

Ugh - is that 'the plan' that Nicks was talking about? I was hoping maybe it was a bigger better burger lol

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The Schlepwagon is leaving town. Ok then. That's another 17 bucks added to the cap

Aivis Kalniņš @A_Kalnins
CSKA Moscow have acquired rights to Anton Slepyshev from Salavat Julaev UFA. Slepyshev is expected to sign with the Moscow team.
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Sekera injury and LTIR Cap relief loosens the Cap a bit.  Gives PC some breathing room ...... as his heart races towards cardiac arrest while looking at HIS team to start the season.

Going to be an interesting run in to Camp the next month or so.

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